The ambiguity on the precise extent of global change makes it difficult to formulate effective policy responses to one of the most significant issues we are now facing, which is climate change caused by human activity. The uncertainty around future climate change that is connected to the stratosphere has been reduced thanks to recent research undertaken by the University of East Anglia (UEA), which has significant repercussions for life on Earth.
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Peer Nowack was a member of the Climatic Research Unit at the University of East Anglia (UEA). Now, Nowack is the leader of an international team that has developed a new statistical learning approach that narrows the spectrum of probable future stratospheric water vapor values. The novel approach combines information from satellite observations with data from the most cutting-edge climate models.
With our new data-driven approach, which exploits machine learning ideas, we were able to make highly effective use of Earth observations to reduce this uncertainty. This required us to develop a framework in which we could combine scientific understanding and mathematical relationships learned from satellite data in innovative ways, explained Nowack.
One of the most important findings of the study clearly disproves the most severe scenarios, which predict that atmospheric concentrations of water vapor might rise by more than 25 percent for every degree that the Earth’s temperature rises. In application, the new method results in a reduction of fifty percent in the number of climate model answers that fall inside the 95th percentile.
It has been a long-standing difficulty in the field of study to quantify the trends of stratospheric water vapor in relation to global warming. However, not anymore. Also, the range of expected increases for the quantity of evaporated water that the stratosphere contains has reportedly stayed fairly wide over the past many decades. This is based on the fact that climate models have forecast that this amount will rise.
The newly discovered information is really exciting, and it has the potential to serve as a solid foundation for further climate and earth-related study.
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